UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s housing market recovery to continue Korea’s housing market is showing signs of recovery, supported by the fall in stocks of unsold homes, rising rents, low interest rates and supportive government policies. A stronger housing market... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices likely to continue to rise, but slowly The rebound in the price of Brent over the last two weeks supports our view that oil prices will gradually climb back to around $70 per barrel over the medium term helped on their way by further... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong demand to lift palladium prices Expectations of strong growth in US and Chinese auto output and sales in 2015 underpin our forecast of a recovery in palladium prices. At the same time, supply remains constrained. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Oil price slump bad news for Texas and North Dakota The collapse in crude oil prices does not bode well for Texas and North Dakota, the two key producers of shale oil. These states have experienced a surge in oil production since 2008 and are now... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Polish inflation in January, to -1.3% y/y, should seal the deal on an interest rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 4 th March. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Jan.) India’s trade deficit narrowed in January as the sharp fall in global oil prices continued to feed through to the import bill. The smaller deficit provides the central bank with further scope to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Record-breaking quarter for euro-zone investment Euro-zone commercial property investment volumes reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2014. Such strong investment flows meant that competition for assets was strong, which in turn led to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have Basel III regulations fuelled the rally in US Treasuries? Basel III regulations appear to have increased US banks’ demand for Treasuries and helped to depress yields at the short end of the curve. What’s more, the continued phasing in of the regulations... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 Prov.) Q4’s slight pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth suggests that the benefits of a falling oil price and a weaker euro are offsetting the effects of the Greek crisis for now. But growth is too weak to reduce... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Concerns about yen unlikely to prevent more BoJ easing We doubt that concerns about rising import costs caused by a renewed weakening of the yen will prevent the Bank of Japan from announcing more stimulus in April. Instead, we maintain our view that... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4) Preliminary Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe show that regional growth slowed from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 2.7% y/y in Q4, which is still pretty strong given the problems in Russia and some parts... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again The slump in oil prices has dramatically altered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Following the Bank of Canada's surprise move last month to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, from 1.00%... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
