Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year. A fiscal stimulus will start to bear fruit in early 2015, but weak data... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are consumers spending their oil windfall? Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has investors’ appetite for EM government bonds waned? The credit spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has increased sharply since the middle of 2014. However, this reflects specific concerns... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The latest euro-zone trade data revealed that exporters are still not fully benefiting from the depreciation of the euro. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation dropped into negative territory in January to its lowest rate since June 2009. In particular, the sharp fall in core inflation adds to evidence elsewhere of increasing... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand's economy continued to gain momentum in the fourth quarter, with growth picking up to 2.3% y/y from 0.6% the quarter before. The Thai economy should gain a firmer footing in the coming... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) While Japan’s economy has finally left the tax-related weakness behind, the increase in Q4 GDP fell short of expectations and supports our view that the Bank of Japan will announce more stimulus in... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's stronger than expected gain in manufacturing sales suggests that GDP grew more strongly than we had assumed in that month. We now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP expanded by 2.4%... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recovery in oil prices may falter soon The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The fall in February's University of Michigan consumer confidence index is nothing to be alarmed about. The decline merely reversed the gain in January and, other than that reading last month... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Gold and silver to shine despite likely US rate hikes It would be wrong to write off gold this year purely on the basis that the Fed is likely to start to raise interest rates, probably in June. We expect the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the US to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
