Global Markets Update Will sterling’s renewed strength be maintained? Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec 14) The 2.0% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December suggests that Canadian consumers have taken flight, perhaps fearful for their jobs in the wake of the fallout from the energy price collapse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 15) The strong pace of growth in both broad money and bank loans is another reason to believe that the temporary bout of negative inflation, which almost certainly began last month, will not develop into... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tightening job market should see off deflation threat The latest inflation figures, showing CPI inflation easing to a record low of 0.3% in January, naturally took up most of the column inches last week. It was therefore easy to overlook the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for January 2015 showed a fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. It could be that the oversupply in the Chinese market is at last leading to producer... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Whatever happened to the super-cycle? The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker growth the new norm for Saudi Arabia The latest data from Saudi Arabia suggest that economic activity was steady, but unspectacular, at the end of last year and we expect growth to remain relatively sluggish at 1.5-2.0% in 2015-16. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances & retail sales (Jan.) January’s public finance figures are likely to have brought a smile to the Chancellor’s face insofar as they show that the economic recovery is finally having a positive impact on the public purse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI provided some reassurance that the region’s recovery may have continued in the first quarter of 2015 despite the ongoing crisis in Greece. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Sterling’s strength unlikely to last Sterling has been one of the few major currencies to appreciate against the US dollar over the past month. As a result the real effective exchange rate is now around 5% above its ten-year average and... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin set to see further strong office rental growth in 2015 Dublin office take-up reached a seven-year high in 2014, helping to drive rental values up by 34%. And, with the economic outlook strong and office supply conditions tightening rapidly, 2015 looks set... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
