Latin America Chart Pack Latin America has turned a corner, but recovery is uneven Growth in Latin America appears to have picked up in recent months. Our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy expanded by about 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, having... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today’s February PMI data provide further evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. Fading fears of a “hard landing” should therefore support the prices of industrial commodities, especially... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for rebound in the year of the sheep Hong Kong’s government has unveiled a budget that should help boost growth this year. There are other reasons to be optimistic about the outlook too, even though today’s GDP data confirmed that growth... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) The January figures from the BBA suggest that mortgage lending has finally bottomed out, with approvals for house purchase rising for the first time since June. Now that expectations for interest rate... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation to have limited impact on pay round With inflation set to turn negative during the busiest time of the year for pay bargaining, the MPC will be on red alert for any signs that deflation is having a knock-on effect on pay deals... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to look for in the upcoming budget Investors are likely to focus on plans for fiscal consolidation when the FY15/16 budget is unveiled on Saturday, but progress on economic reform also warrants close attention. The crucial things to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today's PMI suggests that economic momentum has improved slightly and that downward pressure on inflation is easing. That said, it also points to weaker external demand on the back of rapid trade... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we be worried about the negative saving rate? We are not too worried about evidence suggesting that Japanese households now have a negative saving rate. Thanks to a shrinking fiscal deficit and high corporate saving, Japan remains a net lender to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the US stock market? The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rebound in Brent fails to lift metals prices Even though industrial metals prices were dragged lower by the fall in the price of oil last year, they have yet to benefit from Brent’s recent recovery. Indeed, the futures curves for most industrial... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the FTSE 100 still a bellwether for the UK economy? The FTSE 100’s close above its previous all-time high will no doubt be heralded as another milestone in the UK’s economic recovery. But the reality is that the index has underperformed many other... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Exports from euro-zone and Japan a bit stronger The volume of world trade rebounded in December, but for the fourth quarter as a whole it rose only in line with global GDP. More recent data indicate that the gradual recovery in exports from the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
