ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Little reason to be positive about negative bond yields 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt to hold off from rate cuts until Q3 After a surprise rate cut last month, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates unchanged today. Looking ahead, we think that policymakers will hold off from lowering rates again until the direct... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) At 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, the mortgage delinquency rate has fallen close to the long run average of 5.0%-5.5%. Admittedly, the foreclosure start rate and foreclosure inventory rate... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Paris offices: Gearing up for rental growth Although French employment growth is forecast to remain lethargic, the limited development pipeline and occupiers’ preference for modern, centrally-located space will drive an improvement in the... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London set for period of underperformance While housing market activity has been easing across the country, London has experienced by far the largest slowdown. Demand has contracted sharply thanks to prices which have reached a record high in... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions were healthy at the start of the year, suggesting the ECB’s policy stimulus is already having an effect. 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth has dropped to just 4.0% y/y – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. Much of the latest slowdown appears to... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch A rosy outlook for copper prices Copper has fallen dramatically out of favour since the start of 2015. Prices have dropped nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. Projections of strong growth in mine supply and concerns about... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Waiting for reassurance on wages The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold in February and looks set to sit on its hands over the next few months as CPI inflation descends into negative... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
