India Economics Update Government’s capital spending plans face hurdles The Finance Ministry’s plans outlined in the Budget to significantly ramp up capital expenditure are to be welcomed, but fully implementing them will be a tough challenge. Potential impediments... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2014) The 2.4% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP looks encouraging enough, but this is merely the calm before the storm. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) A surge in house price inflation in January could be the start of a temporary period of faster price growth, caused by tighter supply conditions and the strength of the wider economy. But with housing... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s central bank hikes rates to stem hryvnia crisis The hike in Ukraine’s discount rate by 10.5% to 30% today is a desperate attempt by the National Bank to regain control of the currency, having botched its attempt to tighten capital controls over the... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth continues to cool, but concerns remain The slowdown in private sector lending growth across Latin America should help to ease concerns about the build-up of credit bubbles in the region. However, the accumulation of private sector debt... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New monetary framework a positive, but doesn’t alter big picture Although the new monetary policy framework agreed upon by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government is a positive step, it is also largely symbolic. The framework is unlikely to have much... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Feb.) The construction PMI inched up in February, meaning that it has now reversed a large part of the slowdown recorded at the end of last year. While new orders expanded at decent pace, rising input cost... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) The Swiss economy posted another healthy expansion in Q4, with both net exports and domestic demand continuing to rise. But the franc’s surge since then may well see the economy back in recession... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will platinum prices recover? Concerns about demand coupled with the return of South African production are weighing on platinum prices. However, we think that demand will pick up, particularly in China, and that platinum prices... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) The latest whole economy PMIs from the MENA region provide further evidence that the fall in oil prices hasn’t caused activity in the Gulf economies to collapse, as some had feared. Indeed, activity... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian rates still likely to be cut to 1.5% this year We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision not to follow last month’s rate cut to 2.25% with another reduction today is just a pause in a loosening cycle that will take rates down to 1.5... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) Wage growth remained strong in January even though the winter bonus season came to an end, and may pick up further after the spring wage negotiations. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 14) The Swiss economy posted another healthy expansion in Q4, with both net exports and domestic demand continuing to rise. But the franc’s surge since then may well see the economy back in recession... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
