Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) Brazilian inflation surged to its highest annual rate in a decade last month and the relentless increase, coupled with the recent sell-off in the real, bolsters the case for interest rate hikes to... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Swiss franc’s recent depreciation unlikely to last The Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro in the past month, despite the fact that the euro itself has weakened on a trade-weighted basis. This appears to be partly a correction following the... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity showing some signs of life While far from conclusive, a number of indicators are pointing to a revival in housing market activity. The reform to stamp duty will have helped to boost demand, but more fundamentally record low... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q4 confirmed that the region’s recovery remained very weak at the end of last year but provided some tentative signs that it is becoming better... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s industrial production data suggest that Germany and Spain made a reasonable start to 2015, although there are few signs that the drop in the euro exchange rate is prompting a strong recovery... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a property price collapse mean for Taiwan? Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission caused a stir recently when it warned of the rising risk of a property price crash. Although the economy is unlikely to escape unscathed if property prices... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last There are some reasons to believe that the recent strength in export volumes is the result of improvements in competitiveness linked to currency weakness. However, the trade data tend to be volatile... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update February bounce in inflation likely to be short-lived After a bounce in February, inflation in China looks likely to drift lower in coming months – but remain positive, we think – before rebounding in the second half of the year. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
