Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian export ban After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s electronics sector doomed? The travails of Japan’s electronics giants are not indicative of a general demise of the sector. In aggregate, the electronics industry is in fact doing quite well. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Low commodity prices spell an era of weaker growth for SSA Recent declines in commodity prices will drag on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. What’s more, growth in agriculture and mining during the commodities boom came at the expense of the... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC waiting to be sure deflation will not linger The MPC’s decision to stand pat today – marking the 6 th anniversary of interest rates at their record low of 0.5% – looks set to repeated over the next few months while inflation hovers near zero... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) Given how volatile the Halifax house price index has been in recent months, we wouldn’t read too much into the marginal fall recorded in February. After all, the underlying trend in prices is still... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in the Philippines picked up slightly in February, but remains comfortably towards the lower end of the central bank’s (BSP) target range. Although we expect inflation to rise... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia unlikely to join the rate-cutting club Despite a recent drop in inflation, the Malaysian central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. While several central banks in the region have eased monetary policy this year, we... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress leaves us upbeat that the government will push ahead with reforms and make further progress in rebalancing the economy away from investment, even if... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for India’s financial markets? Despite the prospect of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), we forecast that the country’s stock market will end this year barely any higher than it is now. On a more... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Copper provides a glimmer of hope A lack of Chinese buyers because of the new year holiday was a key factor weighing on metals prices in February. Only copper prices rose, perhaps in part reflecting encouraging economic data out of... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will further monetary easing in India continue to buoy asset prices? 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
