Africa Economics Update South Africa faces lasting energy crisis South Africa’s energy crisis has grabbed headlines over the past month, with Finance Minister Nlahnlah Nene citing the situation as one factor behind the government decision to cut its 2015 growth... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Another strong US Employment Report keeps the pressure on the Fed 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The jump in February’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that economic conditions are improving strongly. However, the survey still points to a slowdown in manufacturing activity in coming months... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) Export growth has been strong so far this year, even after adjusting for the New Year volatility that led to surge in growth last month. That said, rapid trade-weighted renminbi appreciation and a... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bucking the global trend…for now The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is odds on to buck the recent global trend by leaving its cash rate on hold at 3.5% in the announcement scheduled for Thursday 12th March. But if we are right in... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) & Current Account (Jan) While the second estimate of Q4 GDP was not as weak as the headlines would suggest, we still think that the Bank of Japan will announce more stimulus next month. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliff Yesterday's budget left us none the wiser about how policymakers plan to manage the abrupt halt in off-budget financing that new rules are imposing on local governments this year. There could be some... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China unlikely to write a blank cheque for Lat Am The slump in commodity prices since last summer has exposed fragilities in the balance of payments of several economies in Latin America. But while that has left some governments looking to China for... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional interest rate cuts still in the pipeline The Bank of Canada's decision to hold rates unchanged at 0.75% last week will have convinced some that there isn't another rate cut in the pipeline. Nevertheless, we still think we could see another... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values set to rise throughout the next five years With monetary policy being loosened across Europe, we expect bond yields to hover close to their current levels. This will continue to drive investors into higher-yielding asset classes, such as real... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Payrolls data are not all bad news Most commodity prices fell this week even before the strong US payrolls data raised expectations of early Fed tightening and further dollar strength. While recognising that both developments have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) The jump in Canada's trade deficit to a two-and-a-half year high of $2.5bn in January, from $1.2bn, was principally due to a price-related 23% m/m drop in the value of crude oil exports. 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 295,000 increase in payroll employment in February (consensus forecast 235,000) and the further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% illustrate that, even if wage growth is still subdued, the Fed... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
