Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4) Iceland’s economy continued to expand in Q4, suggesting that the country remains well on the road to recovery. 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly fragile On the face of it, Nigeria’s banking system appears to be in good health following a round of recapitalisations in 2011, but its exposure to the oil sector and to naira depreciation mean that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack A temporary surge in house price growth The CoreLogic measure of house prices surged by a seasonally-adjusted 1.4% m/m in January, the largest monthly gain in almost two years. This acceleration appears to have been caused by the tightness... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s French industrial data support the message from the German and Spanish releases that activity was expanding slowly at the start of the year. But the fall in Italian production suggests that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that the recovery in retail spending has lost some pace at the start of this year, after a stellar fourth quarter. But falling unemployment... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation edged up to 10.6% y/y in February and is likely to stay close to 10% for the next few months. Further interest rate cuts are unlikely until the impact of last year’s energy price... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What should we look at if we don’t trust the GDP data? The recent revisions to historic GDP data have been the source of much confusion, not least within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this Update, we look at four indicators that the RBI appears to... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s seasonal pick-up in food inflation will likely prove short-lived and we still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in coming months. Nonetheless, today's inflation data suggest that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4 14) Iceland’s economy continued to expand in Q4, suggesting that the country remains well on the road to recovery. 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone sovereign credit spreads grind even lower? The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese stockpiling to support demand We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
