Global Markets Update What's really behind negative bond yields? The fact that short-dated bond yields are negative in many European countries is often attributed to the prospect of substantial purchases of euro-zone government debt by the ECB under the policy of... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The rise in mortgage rates put a dampener on mortgage applications in February. However, with affordability set to remain favourable and the wider economy growing strongly, mortgage volumes and home... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The 2.0% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in January looks encouraging, but a rebound was always expected after the sharp 3.2% m/m drop last month. And the bigger picture is that industrial... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity steady, but sluggish The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing growth across the emerging world remained stable, yet sluggish, in the first couple of months of this year. Some of the larger EMs are still struggling... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of progress with regional trade agreements? With the WTO talks stalled, hopes for significant progress in trade liberalisation are pinned on two large regional trade and investment pacts. As a result of renewed political pressures for an... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The latest euro-zone retail sales data and PMIs provided reassurance that the euro-zone economic recovery continued at the start of the year. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) The slight deterioration in the headline activity balance of February’s CIPS/Markit report on services was a bit of a disappointment, but hardly a disaster. The general tone of the survey was actually... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan makes case for loosening to continue The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut its policy rates today was unscheduled but not entirely a surprise: we had argued that there was a significant chance of an inter-meeting cut following the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks in better shape to weather an external shock The provisional approval of the extension of the Greek bailout has calmed the markets, but the bigger picture is that the road ahead is still long and bumpy. This means that a Greek exit from the euro... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook QE to boost property values through yield compression Recent economic developments in the euro-zone suggest increased scope for yield compression in commercial property markets. As such, in our latest Analyst we have increased our forecasts for capital... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) Australia’s economy picked up by less than expected in the fourth quarter, and worse is likely to be ahead, given that the effects of a significant deterioration in the country’s terms of trade are... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Low inflation puts policymakers in a bind While the economy didn’t expand as much as many had hoped last quarter, more recent data have been promising. The labour market remains tight and corporate profits have never been higher, so the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: fears of riyal devaluation overdone We think fears that the plunge in oil prices since the middle of last year will force Saudi Arabia to ditch its dollar peg and devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom has plenty of resources to... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
