Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production growth accelerated to 3.0% y/y in December and it should continue to pick-up over the coming months as the manufacturing sector benefits from stronger US demand and the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in energy prices to keep consumer recovery going The marked fall in energy prices over the past six months or so has provided households with a timely boost to their discretionary spending power and so provides another reason to think that the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4) Q4’s solid gain in mainland GDP maintained Norway’s position as the strongest of the Nordic economies. But the ongoing effects of the fall in oil prices are likely to depress growth further over the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4 16) Q4’s solid gain in mainland GDP maintained Norway’s position as the strongest of the Nordic economies. But the ongoing effects of the fall in oil prices are likely to depress growth further over the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How much has investors’ appetite for EM bonds really waned? 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of 2015 Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate hike could still come sooner than markets think Markets have revised their expectations for interest rates significantly, such that they now expect the first rise in Bank Rate to occur in Q1 next year, some four months earlier than they did at the... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys highlight labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to further strong job gains and a pick-up in wage growth. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Brussels offices finally stage a rental recovery? Brussels office vacancy has been falling, but this is mostly attributable to the conversion of obsolete stock to residential uses, rather than expansionary activity. And with economic growth in... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Household formation snaps back The Census Bureau’s estimate of household formation as part of its Homeownership & Vacancy Survey was a very encouraging 1.7m in 2014. Admittedly, that’s significantly above the alternative Current... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Loan growth moderated in January, and a range of leading indicators suggest that borrowing will slow further in coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can the Eurogroup do about Greece? Tomorrow’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers (the “Eurogroup”) takes place against a background of extreme urgency to meet Greece’s near-term financing needs. While some solution appears possible... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
