Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted productivity growth holding back real wage gains The weakness of wage growth is partly due to the near-stagnation in productivity. Unfortunately, the news last week that non-farm productivity was unchanged over 2014 as a whole, suggests there is... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength, maybe now people will believe us. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in January and the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Carney faces balancing act with Inflation Report Deflation will be the word on everyone’s lips at this week’s Inflation Report press conference. Mr Carney will need to emphasise that the Committee is alert to the risk that deflation becomes... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House prices start the year on a stable footing The slowdown in the housing market appears to be bottoming out, helped by record low mortgage rates, rising real earnings and the reform to stamp duty. If banks respond to the increase in demand by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Positive sentiment towards agriculturals fades Abundant supplies of many agricultural commodities and concerns about weak demand are likely to be behind the general deterioration in sentiment towards agriculturals in recent weeks. Indeed, there... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Dec.) Whilst December’s trade data are not as bad as they first appear, the strong pound and weak demand from the euro-zone are likely to prevent a material improvement in the external position in 2015. 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey caught in currency crosswinds The fall in the Turkish lira against the US dollar over the past couple of weeks has raised fresh concerns about the country’s relatively high burden of dollar-denominated debt. But at the same time... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Tougher times ahead after Nigeria’s election Next week’s general election in Nigeria looks likely to be the most closely contested since the country returned to democracy in 1999. The waning in President Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity since he... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which governments gain the most from lower bond yields? If they are sustained, the recent sharp falls in government bond yields will be most helpful for the fiscal positions of southern euro-zone countries such as Italy and Spain. But along with Japan... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will more of Asia's central banks join the loosening cycle? There has been a clear shift towards looser monetary policy around the world since late 2014, and several Asian central banks have been part of the trend. Any further moves over the coming months are... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A health-check of the banking sector Recent moves from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to encourage more lending have brought the health of the domestic banking sector under scrutiny. But while the level of bad loans in the system have... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s industrial production data for Germany and Spain show few signs that the export-sensitive areas of the euro-zone economy have yet received a boost from the drop in the euro exchange rate. 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
