China Economics Update PBOC signals continued policy support Today’s required reserve ratio cut is primarily a signal that the People’s Bank is maintaining the more accommodative stance adopted in November rather than a response to capital outflows or “currency... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts 2015 on a surer footing While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP indicated that the recovery lost pace towards the end of 2014, early 2015 appears to have seen a renewed acceleration. Indeed, monthly indicators of output... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Partial recovery in oil prices ideal for world economy The recent pick-up in oil prices has the potential to develop into a “Goldilocks” scenario: prices high enough to keep most oil producers in business, but low enough to provide a substantial boost to... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally to shift from euro-zone to Japan Euro-zone equities have surged since the end of December, with the DAX up nearly 10%. The key driver of returns has been the anticipation and subsequent launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to ease again soon The Bank of Japan has turned more optimistic on the economic outlook recently, in part on the belief that the plunge in the cost of energy should boost demand. A more pressing concern though is that... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The surge in labour cash earnings in December reflects higher winter bonuses and is unlikely to last. A strong rise in base pay in the upcoming spring wage negotiations will be needed to improve the... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakness concentrated in the BRICs The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was stable, but still sluggish, at the start of this year. However, while manufacturers in the BRIC economies are... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Norwegian property go from hero to zero in 2015? As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House price pressures came off the boil at the end of 2014, with the year-on-year rate of house price inflation at or around 5% during the final four months of the year. With the supply of homes for... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The huge 2.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in December was caused by a collapse in capital goods production, which tends to be extremely volatile. Even so, the underlying picture... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can GDP-linked bonds solve Greece’s debt problems? The proposed plan to exchange some of Greece’s current debts for bonds linked to the performance of the economy has some attractions. But we’re not convinced at this stage that it can make a material... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal and monetary policy after the election CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan.) Having eased in the previous three months, the pace of construction activity in the commercial property sector inched up in January, suggesting that output rates in the sector are stabilising at... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bank collapse would probably trigger “Grexit” The Greek banking sector is once again buckling under the weight of substantial deposit outflows and market concerns about the country’s future inside the euro-zone. There is a significant risk that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s whole economy PMI data suggest that, in spite of the drop in oil prices at the end of last year, activity in the Gulf economies has continued to hold up well. Meanwhile, the dip in Egypt’s... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.2% y/y, means the central bank won’t hold an extraordinary meeting tomorrow to lower interest rates, but this is only likely to... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
