China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) While the PMI readings for January are less downbeat on conditions among small firms, they suggest that momentum has continued to deteriorate among larger firms on the back of softening external... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household balance sheet risks unevenly spread The latest Survey of Financial Security reveals that household balance sheet risks have increased and the burden of that risk is concentrated among individuals in the 35 to 44 age bracket. Enamoured... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's weaker than expected 0.2% m/m decline in GDP suggests that the economy grew by no more than 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year. That's well below the Bank of Canada's estimate of 2.5%... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from revival of Grexit concerns Whether or not Greece ultimately exits the euro, we expect the price of gold to be boosted further this year by the return of safe-haven demand as the country’s financial problems drag on. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Mine closures will lift zinc prices in 2015-16 Solid demand growth coupled with rapidly deteriorating mine supply prospects suggest zinc prices are set to rise in 2015-16. However, the potential for the release of unofficial stocks and restarts of... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions raise more questions than answers At face value, today’s revisions to India’s historic GDP data suggest that the economy has been performing far better than had previously appeared. If true, this implies there is much less room for a... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets make winning start to 2015 Emerging Asian equity markets have got off to a strong start to the year, while the performance of Asian currencies has been much more mixed. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Copper caught up in January sell-off The copper price has continued to tumble this week. We suspect this is due to financial factors rather than underlying fundamentals. The copper market’s high liquidity has made it vulnerable to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bargain hunting to boost China’s commodity imports in 2015 Opportunistic buying supported strong growth in Chinese imports of many industrial commodities in 2014. We expect this trend to continue this year, supporting prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to revive just in time for the election While last week’s GDP figures confirmed that the recovery lost momentum at the tail end of 2014, we expect it to regain pace soon. One helpful development in that respect should be an end to the mini... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2014) Preliminary annual 2014 Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 0.6% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a small year-on-year fall in GDP in the final quarter of last year... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major threat to growth The release of figures showing that China’s working age population continued to fall last year has revived concerns about demographic headwinds to China’s growth. In this China Watch we discuss why... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
