Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungary Industrial Production (Dec.) Strong industrial production figures from both the Czech Republic and Hungary in December provide further evidence that Central Europe is weathering headwinds from the euro-zone relatively well. On... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened slightly to C$0.6bn in December, from C$0.3bn, but that increase was actually much smaller than expected. An encouraging rebound in export volumes more than offset the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has “safe-haven” demand driven US Treasury yields down? While demand for US Treasuries as a “safe haven” may have increased over the past year, we doubt this has contributed significantly to the sharp decline in their yields. Other factors that are also... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will property returns surprise on the upside again this year? At 19.3% IPD all-property returns for 2014 were roughly double the consensus forecast made in late 2013. Both we and the consensus expect returns to moderate, to around 10% this year, as the pace of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What are the implications of revisions to private rent data? The upwards revision to the ONS private rental data brings it closer into line with alternative measures, and so does not alter our views on the housing market. But the figures do suggest that while... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) Inflation in Russia jumped to a five-year high of 15.0% y/y last month, as the effects of the sharp fall in the ruble towards the end of last year led to a surge in import prices. The big rise in... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays focused on deflation risks Presumably today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was again unanimous after deflation concerns prompted Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty to drop their call for a rate hike last month. An... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we overestimating the scope for office yield compression? Calculating implied yield expectations from RICS commercial property survey results suggests that respondents believe yields are close to their troughs in most office markets. Yet given that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) House prices rose at a strong rate for the second month in a row in January, which could reflect the reform to stamp duty giving prices a boost. But while a healthy economic backdrop and record low... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
