India Economics Update RBI’s rate pause likely to prove short-lived Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on January’s unscheduled rate cut with further loosening in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.75% and 6.75%... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Australia won't be the last The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate for the first time since mid-2013 today, taking it down by 25 basis points to 2.25%. Given the RBA’s change of stance and the likelihood that the... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys still painting a mixed picture Final manufacturing PMIs for January suggest that global growth may have stabilised. The outlook for the euro-zone has deteriorated and growth in China has slowed. But prospects for the US are bright... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Precious metals prove their worth Commodity prices stabilised towards the end of January after sharp falls in oil and copper earlier in the month. The strength of the US dollar and concerns about global growth remain significant... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are low freight costs signalling a wider slowdown? The latest fall in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), taking it to its lowest level since 1986, has added to concerns about the health of global demand. But the BDI is best viewed simply as a guide to the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year low of 53.5 in January, from 55.1, reflects the recent surge in the dollar and the weakness of global demand. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax on profits held abroad could be worth 1.5% of GDP The funds raised by President Obama’s proposals to tax foreign earnings could, in theory, provide a 1.5% boost to GDP. Despite tax reform being a shared goal of both parties, however, there is no... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s historic GDP data have been greeted with both cheers and bemusement. One of the more puzzling aspects is that nominal GDP in the last fiscal year was left all but unchanged by the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 12-month high in January but we wouldn’t read too much into this – the relationship between the headline PMI and the hard monthly data on industrial production is... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) January’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing provided some encouraging signs that the sharp fall in oil prices since last summer is finally beginning to support the sector’s recovery. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Downsides of lower oil prices are overstated We think that the risks to the public finances and output in the oil and gas sector from lower oil prices are exaggerated. And while investment in the North Sea might suffer, stronger investment in... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI figure of 54.2 was the strongest in 16 months, and points to manufacturing growth of about 5% y/y. Nonetheless, Kagiso, which publishes the data, acknowledged that issues with the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rate cuts still on the cards Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but, while the accompanying statement remained relatively balanced, the downward revision to this year’s GDP growth forecast suggests... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia showed some signs of improvement, suggesting that the region's manufacturing sectors started 2015 on a slightly better note. In the two economies where the PMIs most... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
