Recovery in oil prices may falter soon

The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to $70 over the medium term. With declining rig counts in the US unlikely to have much impact on production just yet, and seasonal demand weak, the rally in the oil price may falter soon. But the fears that oil prices would remain in free-fall in 2015 have at least been confounded. The past week’s other big gainer was cocoa, where prices jumped on concerns about the size of Ghana’s main crop and a smaller mid-crop in Côte d’Ivoire.