What to expect from Nigeria’s election

Next month’s general election in Nigeria looks set to be the closest since democracy returned to the country in 1999. There is a clear risk that the outcome leads to a repeat of the violence around the 2011 election, with the potential for substantial casualties and disruption to economic activity. What’s more, the dramatic declines in oil prices since last summer have hit tax revenues and suggest that fiscal policy will need to tighten, whichever party wins, acting as an additional drag on growth.