UK Housing Market Update Measuring the affordability of buying a home The share of income a new buyer spends on their mortgage is an obvious way to measure housing affordability. But whether it is calculated using average house prices and incomes, or mortgage lender... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s modest rise in German industrial production suggests that the benefits of a weaker euro are so far being offset by weak demand in Germany and the rest of the euro-zone and bodes ill for GDP... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Czech Republic Ind. Prod. (Oct.) The modest weakening of Turkish industrial production in October reinforces our view that, while the slowdown in the economy has now bottomed out, it’s likely to be a sluggish recovery from here on... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) The November trade data suggest that both external and domestic demand have softened somewhat. That said, we think that underlying conditions have held up better than the sharp falls in headline... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The plunge in today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that Japan’s consumers remain in dire straits as the labour market seems to have softened. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 revised) & Current Account (Oct) The second estimate of Q3 GDP showed that the economy shrank at an even faster pace than initially estimated. However, a return to growth in Q4 looks likely. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Four fiscal fragilities could emerge in time While the Autumn Statement once again saw the Chancellor make the most of a poor hand, we remain concerned that many of his fiscal gambles are unlikely to fully pay off. To our minds, the assumptions... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of Thai rice stocks to push prices lower The fall in the price of Thai rice since August has coincided with the resumption of sales by the Thai government from its enormous stockpiles. Continued official sales into an already well-supplied... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must deliver on QE to push euro lower The rise in the euro during the ECB’s press conference last week apparently reflected disappointment that President Draghi did not provide more explicit signals that quantitative easing (QE) is coming... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are homeowners more sensitive to rising rates than in the past? Although homeowners are currently carrying a lot of mortgage debt, compressing mortgage spreads and an expected concurrent increase in incomes means that they are not notably more sensitive to a rise... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
