US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The massive 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, together with the 44,000 upward revision to the two preceding months, bolsters our view that the Fed will begin to hike interest rates as... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much will Asia benefit from falling oil prices? Most of Emerging Asia stands to benefit from lower oil prices, and in a couple of economies, Korea and Taiwan, we think the impact will be large enough to warrant an increase in our growth forecasts... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in Brazil in November was enough to keep the annual rate of inflation above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for the fourth consecutive month... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q3 offered little encouragement that the region’s lacklustre economic recovery is about to pick up any meaningful momentum. 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3) Iceland’s economy rebounded in Q3 after contracting for two consecutive quarters, led by a surge in investment. Although the quarterly data are very volatile, this expansion suggests that Iceland is... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Easing FDI restrictions are a small step in the right direction The decision this week to lift restrictions on FDI into the construction sector is another indication of the government’s willingness to address India’s investment needs. But even so, there is still a... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower energy prices likely to rattle policymakers In terms of the boost to corporate and household spending power, Japan should be among the big winners from the fall in global energy prices. However, for policymakers, the resulting drag on inflation... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to moderate further Inflation may have dropped to its lowest in nearly five years in November. We are expecting further falls in the months ahead that will add to concerns about the threat of deflation. 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3 14) Iceland’s economy rebounded in Q3 after contracting for two consecutive quarters, led by a surge in investment. Although the quarterly data are very volatile, this expansion suggests that Iceland is... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement unlikely to transform consumer recovery The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a slight boost to consumers’ incomes next year. However, the size of the giveaway is very small. Accordingly, the onus remains on growth... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The OBR’s pessimism on the economy may not be justified The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented the Chancellor with a fairly gloomy set of economic forecasts in the Autumn Statement. Whilst there are clearly a number of obstacles... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is behind the surge in Shanghai equities? While there are some economic reasons for China’s equity markets to have done well recently, they can’t explain the scale of the recent surge. Turnover, leverage and account openings have all soared... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
