Fall in oil prices likely to push Angola into recession

Angola will be one of the hardest hit EMs by the sharp fall in oil prices and we doubt that the authorities will be able to finance the likely current account deficit for more than a couple of years. Accordingly, we expect the currency to weaken, fiscal and monetary policy to tighten, and the economy to enter recession in 2015-16. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the authorities request a bailout from the IMF or China.

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