US Housing Market Focus Will higher interest rates choke off the housing recovery? Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) October’s household borrowing figures confirmed that the sharp slowdown in housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we still think that the current weak patch in mortgage... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey signalled that strong domestic demand is ensuring that the sector’s recovery does not grind to a halt in response to weak overseas demand. Moreover, falls... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) In line with the earlier BBA data, the Bank of England reported a further fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase in October. But with a strong economy and falling mortgage rates boosting... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) Net lending to commercial property dropped to an 11-month low in October, indicating that, although gross new lending flows may be improving, the overall stance of credit conditions in the sector is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest manufacturing PMI for South Africa suggests that growth in the sector continued to pick up at the beginning of Q4. But strong growth is unlikely to last. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The across-the-board rise in last month’s manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe provide further evidence that, in spite of continued weakness in the euro-zone, the region’s economies are ending the... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, but conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment remaining slow, the... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia rose sharply in November on the back of the recent hike in subsidised fuel prices. Inflation is likely to rise again in December and then remain elevated until... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region's manufacturers continue to struggle. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, output appears to be stagnant at... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Today's PMI readings suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to face headwinds. And while it is too early to look for the impact of last month's rate cut in today's data, it seems unlikely... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances points to an upward revision of non-residential investment in the second estimate of Q3 GDP. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2014) The bigger than expected gain in the expenditure-based measure of Q3 GDP means that the Bank of Canada will have a harder time next week defending its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
