Asia Economics Weekly Where could we see an upside surprise next year? We expect most economies in Emerging Asia to record another year of solid, if unspectacular, growth in 2015. That said , there are a number of potential upside surprises. This Weekly looks at some of... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in smaller EMs Our GDP Tracker suggests that having sunk to a five-year low in August, EM growth edged up a little in September. The pick-up appears to have been driven by smaller EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Nov.) & Land Registry (Oct.) House Prices Both the Nationwide and Land Registry reported a further cooling in underlying house price inflation in November and October respectively. With housing demand contracting, house price gains should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria forced to hike rates, while SA & Kenya hold fire The slump in the Nigerian naira this month forced the central bank to take drastic action. Interest rates were hiked for the first time in three years and the currency was devalued. But given that the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence held steady in November and so continues to point to strong growth in household spending. What’s more, a gradual recovery in real pay and employment... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Policy will trump energy costs in the aluminium sector Aluminium production is a highly energy-intensive process, so shifts in global energy prices can have significant implications for output. That said, we expect government policy in China to be the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Real pay rises not big enough yet for rate hike While the dovish tone of the November Inflation Report suggested that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months, the case for starting the process... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How useful are Asia’s manufacturing PMIs? Asia’s manufacturing PMIs are closely watched as some of the most timely gauges of the region’s economic performance. In places such as China, Korea and Taiwan, we find that the PMIs are effective... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Following a surge in industrial output and retail sales in September, we are not too worried about the small drops in October. Indeed, the labour market remains tight despite sluggish demand. However... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 14) The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for Brazil’s new economic team The announcement of a new economic team in Brazil – and the nomination of Joaquim Levy as Finance Minister in particular – will strengthen hopes for a return to more orthodox policies during President... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How widespread is the threat of deflation? The drop in global commodity prices, coupled with a slowdown in global growth, will push headline inflation rates in a number of economies into negative territory. But, other than Japan, the risk of a... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Three priorities for parliament’s winter session The government’s reform agenda has recently gathered momentum, but progress in a number of the most important areas has so far been underwhelming. Breakthroughs in some of these areas should be... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
