UK Markets Chart Pack MPC may not wait as long as markets expect In the space of just three months, UK markets have pushed back their expectations for the first rise in official interest rates from February to November 2015. This may turn out to be an overreaction... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The decline in housing starts in October was entirely driven by a fall in the volatile multi-family component. With single-family starts, building permits and homebuilder confidence all rising, the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the CAPE giving a false signal about euro-zone equities? The gap between cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratios (CAPE) for the non-financial sectors of the US and euro-zone stock markets – using Shiller’s method – has climbed from below zero in May 2008... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which assets should the ECB buy? An effective ECB QE programme would probably involve large-scale purchases of higher-yielding and long-term debt, including both government bonds and private sector assets. But we suspect that the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector a drag on Saudi economy in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3. The oil sector was a drag on the economy, but this was offset by stronger growth in the non-oil sector. Going forward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November will be welcomed by policymakers, not least because the headline rate fell back into the target range for the first time since... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting struck a more balanced tone than last week’s Inflation Report and signalled that it might not take much stronger news on wages or growth for other members to join... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira under fire A number of African currencies have struggled this month, with the Nigerian naira hit hardest as the central bank has scaled back its FX intervention dramatically. Nigeria’s bonds have also sold off... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Respite in property unlikely to last Although activity in industry cooled further in October, our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in the wider economy was stable last month, thanks in part to a respite in the downward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are other Asian currencies to yen weakness? It is tempting to think that a further sharp fall in Japan’s currency would prompt policymakers in the rest of Asia to try to weaken their own in an effort to maintain their competitiveness. But there... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa remained close to the upper limit of the central bank’s target in October. Although recent declines in commodity prices will put some further downward pressure on inflation... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing cycle not over in Chile Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged last night at 3.00% and, although policymakers continued to signal the end of the easing cycle, we still think that it has a little further to run. With... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stimulus still eventually needed The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely expected. While a more upbeat economic outlook suggests that additional easing is not imminent, we think that it will still eventually... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is QE in Japan and Europe good or bad for the US? Although the Fed recently concluded its quantitative easing (QE), the Bank of Japan has announced an expansion in the pace of its own asset purchases and the ECB is edging closer to full-blown QE. We... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices to tip the euro-zone into deflation The recent drop in oil prices looks set to tip euro-zone CPI inflation into negative territory over the coming months, increasing the risk of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
