UK Commercial Property Update Lease lengths no longer a major factor for investors There was little in today’s IPD/BPF/ Strutt & Parker Lease Events Review that should be of undue concern to commercial property investors. Indeed, perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of the report was... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow capital values have further to fall The decline in Russia’s macroeconomic outlook suggests that Moscow occupier demand will fall further. With an influx of new supply also undermining rental values, and property yields set to come under... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling’s decline against the dollar is probably not over 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 This weekend’s summit should end with pledges by individual G20 governments to implement reforms designed to boost growth. Even if little of this is new, the focus on growth is preferable to the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the recovery slow when the fiscal squeeze resumes? The recovery’s acceleration just as the pace of fiscal consolidation eased last year could suggest that GDP growth will slow sharply when the fiscal squeeze re-intensifies after the general election... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent heading for $70 The dip in the price of Brent below $80 per barrel in the last 24 hours is consistent with our long-held view that the world will soon be awash with oil. Indeed, global oil prices look set to hit $70... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing still likely to be needed The Bank of Japan’s decision to step up the pace of asset purchases at the end-October meeting has resulted in a sharp fall in the yen, which should lift consumer prices in coming months. What’s more... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit bubbles deflate – but at the cost of weaker growth There are encouraging signs that the credit bubbles that had been building in a handful of major EMs are now deflating. But this process has only just begun – and the modest slowdown in credit that we... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Improvement in current account position here to stay The recent sharp falls in gold and oil prices could feasibly push India’s current account into surplus over the coming months. Given that India’s large external deficit made its markets among the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold well into 2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold again today despite the ongoing weakness of the economy. A large current account deficit and an uncertain outlook for inflation mean rates are likely to... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) According to the RICS survey house price gains are continuing to ease as housing demand contracts. But with mortgage rates dropping to a new record low, and the strength of the jobs recovery finally... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in October suggests that, for now at least, price pressures in the economy are limited. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Fixed investment, industrial output, retail sales (Oct.) Today's activity and spending data have brought further evidence that Q4 has got off to a slow start. But with President Xi sounding relaxed about the prospect of a drop to 7% GDP growth, a shift in... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
