UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) October’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor might raise concerns that the consumer recovery is losing steam. However, the underlying picture is not as weak as it looks. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Oct.) The rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in October will do little to dispel fears that the country is succumbing to a damaging bout of deflation and will maintain pressure on the Riksbank to... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The sharp fall in the Economy Watchers Survey in October adds to other survey evidence pointing to a sluggish economic recovery. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October and remains barely higher than immediately after the sales tax hike. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme? The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has the potential to lead to a huge increase in capital flows both into and out of China. But it will start slowly and be scaled up only gradually. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Sep.) The current account surplus climbed to a fresh high in September, and the weaker exchange rate should provide additional support in coming months. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Oct. 14) The rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in October will do little to dispel fears that the country is succumbing to a damaging bout of deflation and will maintain pressure on the Riksbank to... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will negative yields render ECB QE useless? Any optimism surrounding the ECB’s progress towards QE has been dulled by concerns that the already low level of yields on many assets will make the policy ineffective. But there is still scope for QE... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there still value in Japanese equities? Japanese equities have paused for breath following the surge in the wake of the additional easing announced by the Bank of Japan and the reweighting of the government pension fund in favour of stocks... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook The recovery is poised to move down a gear Since the previous Analyst, we have slightly increased our projection for 2014 all-property capital value growth from 12% to 14%. But as yields find a floor next year, the forecast that capital values... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some brighter signs in China’s trade data There were signs of a pick-up in copper imports in China’s October trade data, while iron ore and crude oil imports were still up strongly in year-on-year terms. However, exports of some refined raw... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why a weaker ruble spells trouble for Russia’s banks There are relatively few parallels between the 1998 ruble crisis and the present crisis, but one point in common is that some of the greatest vulnerabilities to a weaker currency lie in the banking... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update New subsidy to slow cotton market adjustment in China A new subsidy programme for Chinese cotton producers outside of Xinjiang province is unlikely to have a major impact on the market and we still expect the global price of cotton to fall. Nevertheless... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The increase in Egyptian inflation last month should not ring too many alarm bells. In fact, it can be almost entirely explained by a sharp rise in education inflation ahead of the new academic year. 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
