Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report gave another strong indication that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to keep interest rates on hold for a number of months yet and then increase... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that industry acted as a drag on the currency union’s economy in Q3 and pose downside risks to Friday’s euro-zone GDP figures. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) The latest labour market data provided encouraging signs that the strength of the jobs recovery is finally starting to feed through to a sustained pick-up in real wages. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus The Asian consumer growth story is far from over Some of the world’s fastest growing consumer markets over the next couple of decades are likely to be in Emerging Asia. Prospect are best in China, India and the Philippines, where rapid income growth... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Multi-unit home building still in overdrive The unexpected decline in housing starts in October, which was driven by a sharp drop in the volatile multi-unit segment, is likely to be reversed in the coming months, reigniting concerns about... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production estimates won’t stop grain prices falling Global corn, wheat and soybeans remain on course for record harvests this year. Combined with high stocks, lower energy costs and a stronger US dollar, we continue to expect crop prices to fall... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia’s troubles to have limited global fall-out Russia’s economic prospects are going from bad to worse, but barring a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, the effects beyond central and eastern Europe should be modest. The world’s largest... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) A decline in mining output weighed on Mexican industrial production in September, but strong growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors suggests that the rest of industry is in good shape... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talk of snap election lifts markets A snap election could have the virtue of giving the government a stronger mandate as it struggles to push ahead with structural reform. But it would not be a long-term positive if coupled with a delay... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How should bond markets respond to lower oil prices? While the slump in oil prices will reduce inflation in the major economies, it should also boost economic growth – at least where inflation is not dangerously low to begin with. The net effect on... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Sep.) The jump in the annual growth rate of manufacturing production in September paints a false impression of the sector’s strength. In quarterly terms, output actually contracted in Q3 as a whole. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2014 Q3) The growth in mortgage lending continued to slow in the third quarter according to the CML. But the MMR has not led to a sharp drop in LTI or LTV ratios, and lending should pick up once housing demand... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP data to show widespread weakness in the region The raft of preliminary Q3 GDP data due to be published this month is likely to be disappointing, showing a slowdown in growth across the region. While domestic demand seems to have held up reasonably... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
