Europe Economics Update Greece exits recession but big challenges remain While it is welcome news that the Greek economy has finally started growing again after seven years of recession, the recent GDP figures have not solved two of its, arguably biggest, problems: its... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Oct.) & Empire State (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in industrial production in October will boost concerns that the global slowdown and stronger dollar are taking their toll on activity. While industry should be hit harder than other... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall to 140 against the US dollar Japan’s drop back into recession will strengthen the disinflationary pressures in the economy and reinforces the divergence in the prospects for monetary policy relative to those in the US. As a... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Saudi Arabia respond to the fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia is likely to resist pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output in an effort to arrest the recent slide in prices. After all, the Saudi economy is in a stronger position to... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus to a new record in September was an encouraging sign that exporters are starting to benefit from the weaker euro. But the ECB will need to deliver on hints... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Oct.) Given the recent sharp falls in global oil prices, the relatively small narrowing of India’s trade deficit in October is disappointing. A renewed slump in exports is to blame. Looking ahead... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan rate cut not the start of aggressive easing The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% over the weekend, having been encouraged by a recent drop in inflation. But with inflation set to rise again over the coming months... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand's economy continued its lacklustre recovery in the third quarter, with growth picking up only slightly to 0.6% y/y from 0.4% the quarter before. Growth should accelerate further in the coming... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The surprising fall in Q3 GDP suggests that PM Abe will call off the planned increase in the sales tax next October. 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Expansion of health insurance not boosting wider economy Although 10 million more people now have health insurance following the introduction of the ACAprovisions last year, the data suggest that trends in healthcare consumption and inflation have... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The periphery catches up – oh dear One notable element of last week’s euro-zone GDP figures for the third quarter was the strength of the peripheral economies, even Greece, in relation to the core. This might be seen as confirmation... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to an eight-year high in November means there is a very good chance that retailers’ holiday wishes will be granted. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) Strong job creation, falling unemployment and lower mortgage interest rates all helped the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems continue into the third... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are EM equities to the plunge in the price of oil? 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
