US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in the dollar value of retail sales in October was even stronger than it looks because the headline figure was depressed by a price-related drop in gasoline station sales. Real... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are the MPC’s new forecasts plausible? There have been suggestions in some quarters that the MPC’s new forecasts for strong growth, low unemployment and below-target inflation push the envelope of plausibility. However, the MPC is... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prov.) The small expansion in the euro-zone economy in Q3 has not diminished the need for both the European Central Bank (ECB) and national governments to respond to the persistent risk of deflation in the... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Russia pulls down Emerging European property indicators Economic indicators generally pointed to slower growth across both Western European and Emerging European economies in Q3. That helps to explain why occupier market data were soft, with rents... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, on the back of big increases in consumption and exports. Although growth will probably weaken again in Q4... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The sharp drop in WPI inflation in October adds to evidence of fading price pressures. It also supports our long-held view that the RBI could begin to cut interest rates earlier than many seem to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were surprisingly strong given the headwinds facing the region from Russia and, in particular, the euro-zone. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Delay in sales tax hike no reason to cheer The question of whether to go ahead with next year’s sales tax hike will remain in the spotlight with Monday’s release of the Q3 GDP data, which Prime Minister Abe previously said would inform his... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French GDP (Q3) Q3’s near stagnation of the German economy confirmed that economic weakness has spread to the core of the single currency area. While France performed marginally better, it seems that the euro-zone... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Broad credit growth continued to slow in October, supporting our view that, despite recent liquidity injections, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is seeking to keep credit growth on a downward trajectory. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another interest rate cut still likely in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but, with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to fall back into target in the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper mine supply likely to disappoint On paper, copper mine supply should surge next year. But the copper mining industry has a long history of supply disruptions and we see no reason why these will not continue. This is one factor... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) Malaysia's economy slowed in the third quarter, with growth coming in at 5.6% y/y, down from a revised 6.5% the quarter before. We expect growth to slow further in the coming quarters, as the domestic... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
