UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) September’s trade data provided further signs that the UK’s recovery remained distinctly domestic-led in the third quarter as exporters struggled to cope with the strong pound and weak external demand... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office occupier market stronger than take-up data suggest There are a number of reasons to think that the German office occupier market is stronger than third quarter take-up data suggest. And, with vacancy rates low and the majority of upcoming developments... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Moment of truth for reform Two recent state election victories have strengthened the position of India’s ruling party, the BJP. More importantly, with the electoral calendar now looking less busy, there is a window of... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s disappointing rebound in German industrial production increased the risks that both the German and euro-zone economies contracted in Q3 and added to the pressure on the ECB and German... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Conditions in place for consumption growth to accelerate Even though consumption growth lost momentum at the end of the third quarter, the conditions for stronger growth are falling into place ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s Draghi signals QE is imminent Today’s statement from Mr Draghi that ECB staff are preparing further monetary policy measures provided the firmest support yet for our long-held view that the Bank will implement full-blown... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Valuation picture weighing on housing market confidence We are not convinced that September’s drop in realtor confidence will herald another large dip in home sales. But it is another reminder that housing valuations are starting to become a drag, rather... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery not dependent on PPI payments The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, recently suggested that PPI payments may be behind the strength of the consumer recovery. But the reality is that they have only provided a meagre boost to... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for rock-bottom rates remains strong for now With inflation easing and uncertainty about the economic outlook growing, the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% looks set to be repeated for a few more months. And while the MPC will not wait... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s industrial production data confirmed that the weaker global backdrop and strong pound have held back the manufacturing sector’s recovery. However, robust domestic demand should ensure its... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
