Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still easing credit conditions despite end of QE3 The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks are making it easier for households and smaller businesses to obtain credit, suggesting that the Fed's QE taper has had no... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to slightly weaker growth in October Final manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global growth may be slowing a little at the start of Q4, dragged down by the euro-zone’s chronic problems. But the US and UK continue to perform well... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back to a three-year high in October supports our view that the US economy will largely shrug off the recent easing in global demand and the effects of the... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI survey suggests that Brazilian manufacturing will continue to contract in year-on-year terms as we head into 2015. By contrast, the survey offers further evidence that Mexican... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack “A perfect storm” batters gold prices A sharp drop in the price of oil and the strength of the US dollar weighed on all commodity prices in October. Only the prices of those commodities with falling stocks or potential supply disruptions... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in September but France and Italy submitted draft budgets that flouted EU fiscal rules. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Renewed weakness in gold price has a silver lining Talk of a collapse in the gold price is overblown (or at least out of date). The price of gold has arguably held up rather better in recent weeks than many might have anticipated, given the general... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Oct.) October’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey provided some tentative signs that the sector’s recovery regained some momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, it will remain up to the services sector to... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI gave some encouraging evidence that South Africa’smanufacturers are bouncing back from the weakness earlier in the year. But we doubtthat the sector is about to embark on a... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe provide further evidence that, having slowed in Q3, the region started Q4 on a stronger note. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update PMIs weaken in most of Asia The October PMIs for Emerging Asia offered no signs that the region's disappointing manufacturing recovery is gaining any momentum. The most encouraging aspect of today's surveys was that they pointed... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Although the PMIs diverged in October, the breakdown of both is consistent with cooling domestic demand and a further slowdown in growth going into Q4. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The decline in GDP for August, after the near-stagnation in July, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth may have fallen short of the economy's potential growth rate of 2.0% annualised. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
