Asia Economics Update Minimal impact from the end of QE3 Asia's financial markets have so far taken the end of QE3 largely in their stride. The performance of the region's currencies and equity markets has been fairly muted over the past month, while... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: next move in interest rates could be down Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% last night and with economic growth slowing and inflation unlikely to pose a problem for policymakers, further interest rate hikes now seem... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets stage for further weakening of yen It always looked likely that the Bank of Japan would be forced to step up its pace of easing but the change of tack has come sooner than the market (or we) had expected. Given the recent downward... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While the GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence edged down again in October, it remained consistent on past form with robust spending growth. What’s more, sentiment should be supported by a... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Taiwan to remain solid if unspectacular Taiwan’s economy picked up slightly last quarter, on the back of stronger exports, investment and public spending. Over the next year or so, we expect Taiwan’s economy to continue to record decent... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending & Inflation (Sep.) The renewed rise in unemployment last month shows that the labour market is no longer tightening, and we think it will start to slacken in earnest soon. Meanwhile, inflation continues to slow, and... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Case for inaction remains robust The current weakness of domestic price pressures and the euro-zone’s continued malaise suggest that the MPC is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months. But the Committee is unlikely to... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Political pressure keeping lid on QE for now The ECB seems unlikely to announce any new policies this month as it continues to purchase small quantities of covered bonds and prepares to buy asset-backed securities. With the risk of deflation... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Recent market turmoil to have mixed impact on monetary policy The turbulence in financial markets in the middle of October won’t have a major impact on monetary policy in developed economies. We do not think it is a sign that the world is heading for another... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks further on BRICs weakness Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth slowed to a five-year low of 4.1% y/y in August, due in large part to a further downturn in the BRIC economies. Preliminary data suggest that growth may have... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Slower inflation might delay, but not prevent, rate hikes The latest data show a general slowdown in inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa. A variety of factors contributed to this easing, including lower commodity prices and the unwinding of the impact of... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The better than expected 3.5% annualised rise in third-quarter GDP, which was above the 3.0% consensus forecast and even our own 3.3% call, illustrates that the Fed was right to adopt a slightly more... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy got off to a weak start in Q4, after broadly stagnating in Q3. 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis pushes central bank towards heavy FX intervention The Russian ruble has rallied by around 3% against the dollar today seemingly as a result of central bank intervention on the foreign exchange market 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
