Europe Economics Update What can the ECB learn from the Bank of Japan? While the extension of the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing programme may not deliver a sharp upturn in the Japanese economy, the signal it has sent regarding the future stance of Japanese monetary... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the slump in oil prices affect the world economy? The collapse in oil prices over the past few months will not transform the outlook for the world economy, but it should act as an “automatic stabiliser”, providing some reassurance to those fearing... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's encouraging trade report confirmed that the recovering export sector provided a solid positive contribution of around one percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Precautionary credit line may not be sufficient for Greece The Greek Government appears to have backtracked from plans of a “clean exit” from its EU bail-out programme in December, but it might still be over-estimating the extent to which it can finance... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The increase in the trade deficit to $43.0bn in September, from $40.0bn, means that third-quarter GDP growth is now set to be revised down from the initial 3.5% annualised estimate to about 3.0%... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s MPC dovish on inflation outlook Having cut its policy interest rate by 25bp to 2.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy at the post-meeting press conference. Nonetheless... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The month-on-month increase in house prices in September suggests that the housing market is putting the very weak mid-year period behind it. But underlying rates of house price appreciation are still... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s Brazilian industrial production data suggest that the sector remained a drag on the overall economy in the third quarter and, with both domestic and external demand set to remain weak, it... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) After a multi-year high in September, the CIPS/Markit commercial property construction PMI eased down again in October. But it remained at a high level and indicates strong confidence in the prospects... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) September’s Brazilian industrial production data suggest that the sector remained a drag on the overall economy in the third quarter and, with both domestic and external demand set to remain weak, it... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's first rate hike further off than most expect The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today and provided no surprises in its policy statement either. Once again it said that “the most prudent course is likely to... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Asset shortage no constraint on QQE Despite a significant acceleration in the pace of JGB purchases, a shortage of available assets will not pose a constraint on QQE anytime soon. 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
