UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) September’s household borrowing figures confirmed that new mortgage rules and cooling demand have continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we doubt that this downward trend will persist for... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) provided further evidence of a slow improvement in euro-zone credit conditions. But lending standards are still tight and the faltering economic recovery... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) According to the Bank of England, mortgage approvals fell once again in September, to a 14-month low. But with economic conditions still favourable, this weak patch shouldn’t last much longer. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep./Q3) Net commercial property lending was negative again in September. We think positive figures are now in sight, but also that lending activity is unlikely to boom. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The surge in manufacturing output in September suggests that the sector has finally turned the corner, but a strong recovery is not on the cards. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal output will still increase, but at a slower pace The current slump in coal prices is unlikely to lead to a significant fall in coal production over the next year. Instead, output should continue to grow, just at a slower pace than in recent years. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack No sign of improvement Economic growth in Emerging Asia is showing no sign of improvement. Our GDP tracker is pointing to growth of around 4.5% in the third quarter, which is roughly unchanged from the previous quarter and... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports as well as exports look suspicious Most of the headlines questioning China’s September trade data have focused on anomalies on the export side. But China’s imports also seem to have been distorted, which may be a sign that firms are... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed to end asset purchases, but likely to retain dovish rate guidance 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The leap in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in October to a seven-year high suggests that households are becoming more upbeat just as the crucial holiday shopping season draws... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q3/Aug.) Today’s housing market data revealed a further slowdown in underlying house price growth, but the outlook for rental value growth is strengthening. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian investment volumes set to grow after bank stress tests A low volume of “bad asset” sales helps to explain why Italy’s investment growth has lagged behind other countries. Yet the recent bank stress tests, combined with changes to the Italian REIT... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
