Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower fuel subsidies to dampen oil demand growth The recent sharp fall in oil prices should make it easier for governments in developing countries to reduce oil subsidies without dramatically increasing inflation. Meanwhile, a reduction in oil... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the economy still propel the Tories to victory? While the economy’s recent revival has so far failed to deliver the Conservative party a sustained lead in the opinion polls, there are reasons to think that this could change before the general... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why has the euro-zone slowed so sharply? The surprisingly sharp slowdown in the euro-zone economy over recent months may be partly the result of temporary negative factors such as the Ukraine crisis. But the underlying picture is still one... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct & Q4.) The weaker-than-expected tone of October and Q4’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey added to other indicators which suggest that the near-term outlook for UK manufacturers remains pretty gloomy. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: into the final straight The latest polls suggest that this weekend’s run-off in Brazil’s presidential election is still too close to call, which we suspect favours the incumbent, Dilma Rousseff, over the challenger, Aécio... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s monthly decline in retail sales volumes can be entirely explained by temporary factors. Indeed, the recovery in consumer spending still looks robust. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep.) The British Bankers’ Association reported that mortgage approvals dropped in September, leading to the first annual decline in loans for 18 months. But with lenders planning to boost the availability... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q3) Strong readings from today’s RICS construction survey confirm that commercial property developers’ confidence about the prospects for occupier demand is high. We agree that the outlook for the... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but further hikes likely The decision to leave interest rates in the Philippines on hold at 4.0% today reflects a recent easing of inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, with credit still growing at an unsustainable pace and... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s modest rise in the euro-zone composite PMI left it still dangerously close to the no change level of 50. With hard data pointing to a possible fall in GDP in Q3, the region may still have... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: slowdown in Q3, but more timely signs of improvement Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Polish economy slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 3.2% y/y in Q2. But it does at least look like the economy strengthened a touch towards the end of the... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
