Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are the economic effects of sanctions? Although economic sanctions can have a devastating effect in some circumstances, their impact is more often fairly limited, even on the targeted country. In most cases sanctions are not intended to... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to look again at commodities The hype about a supposed “super-cycle” at the start of the decade has been replaced by fears of a prolonged period of “secular stagnation” in commodity prices. As usual, the reality lies somewhere in... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surge in consumption tax revenue yet to come Amid questions over the government’s commitment to the planned second consumption tax hike, the positive impact of the first hike on revenue is already being felt: Japan’s budget deficit has fallen to... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft efforts It is tempting to dismiss the Communist Party’s talk of boosting the “rule of law” in China as simply hot air. Beneath the rhetoric though, the focus is on institutionalising the ongoing anti... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Recent market events, most notably the slump in world oil prices, will keep core inflation in Canada well within the policy target range over the coming months. Accordingly, we expect the Bank of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in consumer confidence to a seven-year high in October is another indication that the US economic outlook remains strong. That said, the preliminary survey results pre-date the recent equity... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls sharper than even we expected We think that the recent sharp falls in oil prices have more to do with increased production than a collapse in global demand. As such prices may rebound a little this year, as the worst fears about... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower commodity prices to bolster consumer recovery Lower oil and food prices should provide a timely boost to consumer spending at a time when employment growth has faded and financial asset prices are falling. 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold as prospects for both improve For the third time since 2013 the price of gold has found decent support at around $1,200 per ounce. That level might be tested again soon, as fears over the global economy fade and the focus returns... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
