China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Today's PMI reading supports our view that the labour market remains healthy. That said, it also suggests that cooling domestic demand is still putting downward pressure on growth going into Q4. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (October) The rebound in the flash manufacturing PMI in October indicates that industrial production should stop falling soon. 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada ditches neutral forward guidance The Bank of Canada's decision to drop its neutral forward guidance reflects a change in its policy communications approach and not the interest rate outlook. With less explicit forward guidance to go... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Equities suffer further losses, but currencies and bonds fare better Following last month’s broad sell-off in “risky” assets, in which financial markets in Latin America were hit across the board, the performance this month has been more mixed. While equities have... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Timing of first hike becomes more finely balanced While the recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases at the meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 29th, it does mean the Fed is unlikely to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: talked the talk on austerity, now to walk the walk Today’s medium-term budget statement provided some encouraging signs that the government is finally willing to implement fiscal consolidation measures in order to prevent the public finances from... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf hit by falling oil prices Despite recovering a little in recent days, it’s been a torrid month for stock markets across the MENA region. In part, this has reflected the broader sell-off in EM financial markets. But in the Gulf... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail sales drop back to underlying trend The small decline in August retail sales volumes, combined with the meagre gain in wholesale sales reported earlier this week, supports our view that the economy lost some momentum in the third... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drag from lower gasoline prices is only just beginning and will eventually result in CPI inflation falling from 1.7% in September to just 1.2% in December. Core inflation will remain higher, but... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable is non-core logistics property to risk aversion? Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What will Labour’s mansion tax mean for prime property values? Labour have now confirmed that their version of the mansion tax would be based around price bands, with homes valued at between £2m and £3m having to pay a flat rate charge of £3,000 per year. In... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) The minutes of October’s MPC meeting showed that the views of those voting to keep interest rates on hold have becoming more entrenched. As such, we have pushed back our forecast for the first rise in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor supply prospects should underpin lead prices Lead prices have fallen this year, in large part owing to slower demand growth in emerging economies. However, supply prospects (both mined and refined) are deteriorating and official stocks are low... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Credit spreads in Italy and Spain are likely to rise further The average yield spread of 10-year Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds over German Bunds has surged by almost 20 basis points over the past month. We suspect that it may rise further. One reason for... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
