US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) & Philly Fed (Oct.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in September and the very modest decline in October's Philly Fed regional manufacturing index are helpful reminders that the slowdowns evident in China and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's economy probably stagnated in Q3 Activity data for August contain some evidence that conditions in Brazil’s beleaguered economy may have started to improve. But as things stand it seems the best we can hope for is that GDP in the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Equities should stage a partial recovery before year-end There are, of course, plenty of reasons why the performance of equities can decouple from that of the economy. But the recent slump in stock prices does not appear to be justified by the economic data... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are Rest of UK office rents poised to accelerate? History shows that upswings in London and South East office rents tend to filter out pretty quickly to the rest of the country. And with the economic recovery entrenched and regional office-based jobs... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices not a major headache for the Gulf The ongoing slide in oil prices doesn’t pose too much of a threat to the Gulf economies. But it does reinforce the point that a key driver of the region’s economies over the past decade is weakening... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Sep.) & FX reserves (Q3) Credit growth slowed further last month, on the back of continued efforts by policymakers to address credit risks. Meanwhile, the fall in China's FX reserves reflects a stronger dollar, not FX sales... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank sitting on the fence At next week's policy meeting we expect the Bank of Canada to remain neutral on the direction and timing of the next move in its policy rate. Although core inflation has rebounded sooner than the Bank... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global outlook nowhere near as bad as markets suggest Global growth is likely to remain well below its pre-crisis average for at least the next couple of years. However, while prospects for the euro-zone have gone from bad to worse, the outlook for the... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Market moves hard to square with solid economic fundamentals The growing sense of market panic evident in the sharp declines in equity prices and the strong rally in US Treasury bonds over the past week is hard to square with the solid outlook for US economic... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Slump in bond yields hard to square with economic reality 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.), Empire State (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) The weak tone of the latest retail sales, manufacturing and PPI data is the first real sign that the stronger dollar and the global slowdown are taking their toll on the domestic economy. But it’s... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will lower oil prices have on Norway’s property markets? With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
