China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The September trade data suggest that foreign demand remains healthy, albeit probably not as strong as the pick-up in export growth suggests. Import growth also strengthened but it was driven by a... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence still short of the mark While the Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the outlook for sales growth, firms still aren't confident enough in that outlook to boost investment... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The stronger than expected 74,100 increase in employment in September, which pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.8%, from 7.0%, suggests that the economy might finally be catching fire. One month... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the FTSE’s fall signalling a slowdown? On the face of it, the sharp decline in the FTSE 100 to its lowest level since last October appears to be a bad portent regarding the sustainability of the UK economy’s recovery. However, the FTSE’s... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The slide in the US stock market is unlikely to turn into a rout 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Inflation looks to have remained low in September, with weak commodity prices and a cooling housing market helping to keep broad price pressures subdued. We see slightly higher inflation ahead, due to... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany needs more stimulus for its own sake Recent renewed calls for the German Government to take advantage of its fiscal room for manoeuvre in order to stimulate its economy have centred on the potentially beneficial effects on its weaker... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the weaker yen doing more harm than good? The weaker yen hasn’t resulted in the hoped-for improvement in export competitiveness. It has boosted corporate profits, but the pass-through to business investment has been weaker than usual... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How our forecasts differ from consensus and the IMF In this Weekly we look at how our GDP forecasts differ from consensus and those recently released by the IMF. In most countries our 2015 growth forecasts are not far out of line, but there are four... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME warehouse reform no longer so relevant The LME’s warehousing reforms should facilitate access to metal from its warehouses, a factor that was creating artificial tightness in the aluminium market last year. However, the market has moved on... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More interest rate cuts to come in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to remain within target over the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The continued decline in consumer confidence in September adds to the impression from last month’s business sentiment surveys that the recovery remains sluggish. 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry still struggling Industrial production (IP) growth in the emerging world is very weak. In aggregate terms, EM output grew by just 2.0% y/y in August – the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. The... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
