UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market figures indicated that the economy is finally starting to see the pick-up in productivity that is required for both the recovery to maintain its present momentum and real... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal slippage could promote more pragmatic policy The French Government’s submission today of a budget that flouts the European Commission’s fiscal rules will be a key test of EU authorities’ resolve. We expect a compromise to be reached that forces... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Today’s cut should mark the end of the loosening cycle in Korea Today’s 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BoK) takes the main policy rate back to the all-time low last seen during the global financial crisis. But with growth set to accelerate... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Although today's inflation data suggest that broad price pressures remain subdued, we aren't yet concerned about deflation risks. Rising pork prices mean the fall in food inflation last month is... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While bank lending continues to expand robustly, credit in aggregate is growing less rapidly. In fact, household debt reached a fresh low relative to output in Q2. 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peripheral industrial property values look set to outperform In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EMs struggle to follow China’s lead Although EM export growth slowed in August, the general trend since the middle of the year has been one of improvement and more timely figures suggest that the recovery resumed last month. However, a... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Adverse market reaction hits Greek bail-out exit hopes The adverse market reaction to the Greek Government’s plans to exit its IMF bail-out early has underlined the fragility of market sentiment towards the country and presumably made it very unlikely... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses struggle in September As it is consistent with slower investment growth, lower inflation and a rise in the unemployment rate, the NFIB’s latest survey of small firms bolsters the case of the doves at the Fed. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Treasury and Bund yields continue to diverge? Although the spread between the yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds is already close to its largest since the start of European Monetary Union, we see little reason why it should not... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are supermarket property returns past their best? Over the past 30-35 years, supermarket property total returns have averaged more than 11% p.a., better than any of the other main segments. However, this long period of outperformance has now left... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreads After blowing out during the financial crisis, mortgage interest rate spreads have been trending down for the past 18 months. As financial markets make further progress towards normality, that process... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation supports those members of the Monetary Policy Committee arguing that there is still no hurry to raise interest rates. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) & German ZEW (Oct.) August’s fall in euro-zone industrial production and the sharp drop in German ZEW investor sentiment in October add to the risk that the single currency area may be entering its third recession in six... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) September’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor highlighted the diverging prospects for the food and non-food retail sectors. Whilst growth in overall retail spending may have slowed a touch in Q3, it should... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's economy should pick up after soft patch Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy recorded a small expansion in Q3, as manufacturing output stabilised. As long as the recovery in the global economy does not falter, Singapore's growth... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
