US Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The rise in housing starts in September continued the recent volatile pattern whereby a decline in one month has been followed by an increase in the next. But while there has been little underlying... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece trigger another crisis? While there are some comforting distinctions between the recent jump in Greek bond yields and that which triggered the euro-zone crisis back in 2010, the scale of the economic challenges still facing... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s new president has his work cut out Joko Widodo, the outgoing mayor of Jakarta, who takes over as Indonesia’s president on Monday, is seen by some as the man to turn the country’s fortunes around. But while he has attracted plenty of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price growth eases on back of falling demand Housing market activity has cooled considerably over the past few months. A lack of homes available for sale, fears over future increases in interest rates, a drop in mortgage lending following the... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal drag Japan is emerging from its second-quarter slump but weak household consumption and business investment, combined with further fiscal austerity, are likely to keep domestic demand sluggish. What’s more... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The large drop in manufacturing sales volumes in August supports our more conservative view that the economy continued to struggle in that month. If anything, the risks to our below-consensus estimate... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates left unchanged as recovery trumps high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today came as little surprise. Inflation remains high but policymakers are undoubtedly wary of tightening monetary policy due to... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sluggish growth in Q3 Our South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth picked up slightly in Q3, but was still very weak. As a result, there is a significant chance that GDP growth in 2014 as a whole undershoots... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on Latin America The biggest loser from the drop in oil prices within Latin America will be Venezuela and, although the government may make its debt servicing obligations this month, a default seems more likely than... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage fees don’t point to future mortgage stress Mortgage fees and charges, whether guarantee fees, mortgage insurance premiums or origination points, have increased in recent years. But fees are not weighing significantly on buyer demand and do not... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update In the euro-zone at least, the markets have got it right While the recent weakness of financial markets appears hard to square with the economic outlook insome parts of the world like the US, in the euro-zone the markets’ concerns appear more justified. 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why the correction is unlikely to turn into a bear market 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
