Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank Governor strikes a dovish note Following a larger-than-expected interest rate cut in Poland earlier today, Governor Belkaunderstandably maintained an extremely dovish stance at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. At the... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ? Although we anticipate that the first interest rate hikes in both the US and the UK will come around the same time, towards the end of the first quarter next year, we expect the subsequent pace of... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is now the time to be buying Spanish industrial assets? Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian elections may prove to be the spur for reform Upcoming elections in Tunisia are another important step along the country’s long and bumpy path to democracy. If the elections pass smoothly, as seems likely, this should at the very least provide a... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest rise in Brazilian inflation gives ammunition to Neves The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, which has pushed it further above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range, will give further ammunition to Aécio Neves ahead of his run-off against... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply not demand weighing on the copper price We continue to expect the copper price to fall further in the fourth quarter but this forecast is premised on strong supply growth rather than a sharp drop in demand. Indeed, if supply disappoints... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) While the rise of 0.6% m/m in September on the Halifax measure of house prices is perhaps stronger than expected, it remains the case that underlying house price inflation is cooling. With housing... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy skirting recession The ongoing slide in industrial production and the weakness of the Tankan have raised concerns that Japan’s economy is in recession. It will be a close-run thing, but more important is what happens... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) The renewed deterioration in the outlook component of today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that a rapid recovery of Japan’s economy is not on the cards. 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady, if unspectacular, growth ahead Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to see growth accelerate gradually over the next year, helped by a combination of stronger demand from advanced economies and relatively loose monetary... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Aug.) The current account surplus rebounded in August, and may rise a touch further in coming months as a result of the fall of the yen against the dollar. 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling oil prices to curb investor enthusiasm The recent decline in crude oil prices won't affect the immediate outlook for oil & gas production but, if sustained, lower oil prices could curb investment in Canada's oil sands, particularly as... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will OPEC respond to falling oil prices? There are several reasons why OPEC members in general – and Saudi Arabia in particular – are likely to be sanguine about the recent slump in the price of oil. Output will therefore continue to respond... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More signs of labour market strength The fall in part-time employment is one more positive trend to emerge from September’s Employment Report. And more recent releases provide further signs that the labour market is improving rapidly. 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
