Global Economics Chart Pack Could Q3 be as good as it gets? Although global growth should be a little faster in the second half of the year than the first, it is unlikely to continue rising in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the US looks set for a sustained... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why haven’t euro-zone exports recovered more strongly? The persistent weakness of euro-zone exports seems to have reflected the high level of the euro, tradelinks with Emerging Europe and cost and regulatory pressures on the region’s exporters. While... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effect of slowdown in China to differ across Africa Stronger trade and investment links mean that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy as a whole is more exposed to China’s than ever before. We forecast China’s economic growth to slow over the next few years... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No need to begin to “normalise” yet With both current and pipeline price pressures easing, the housing market cooling further and the international environment souring over the last month, it seems unlikely that any other MPC members... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s Draghi suggests QE is on its way President Mario Draghi hinted strongly that a deterioration in the inflation outlook in the coming months would result in the ECB taking bolder, unconventional policy action, leaving the door wide... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US non-farm payrolls probably grew quite strongly in September 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Financial Policy Committee sets out new powers over mortgage lending The FPC has requested additional powers over loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios, which will include buy-to-let lending. But with the housing market now cooling, and limits on high loan-to-income... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A stronger economy could be a mixed blessing for US equities A stronger economy would clearly be better news for the US stock market than another recession. But it might not provide much of a boost to share prices if the labour market becomes too tight. If... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – heading to a second round No candidate looks set to secure a majority in the first round of voting in Brazil’s presidential election this Sunday, meaning that the race is all but certain to extend to a second round run-off... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira has further to fall The rise in the Turkish lira today has brought some respite to the beleaguered currency. And with the central bank now tightening monetary conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest rally in... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Smaller budget deficits were seen in most of the peripheral economies in August, but France’s fiscal position continued to deteriorate. 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resignation of BCRA Governor opens door to more unorthodoxy The resignation of the Governor of the Argentine central bank (BCRA) opens the door for even more unorthodox economic policy. With no end in sight to the government’s debt dispute, and policymaking... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep.) The CIPS/Markit commercial property construction PMI for September was as high as it has been at any point since 2007. Increased construction will clearly dampen rents over the long term. But focusing... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the exchange rate for inflation? The latest data still show a sluggish recovery, but recent BoJ communication remains upbeat. The upcoming meeting is therefore unlikely to result in any changes to policy or tone. Instead, we think... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
