Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) September’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to the evidence that the eurozoneeconomy struggled to pick up in Q3, after stagnating in Q2. 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Interest rates unlikely to rise much further Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and we do not expect rates to rise in the near term. There may be one more 25bp increase to 4.75% next year if domestic demand remains... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy to remain near-stagnant in 2015 The impact of Western sanctions, a slowdown in the previously resilient consumer sector and, perhaps most importantly, increasingly statist policymaking have led us to revise down our forecasts for... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The number of mortgages approved for house purchase dropped once again in August. Housing demand is cooling on the back of high house prices, but as price gains moderate and real earnings pick up... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in August, but the least so since February last year. Gross lending, however, is rising and we would expect this to flow through to positive... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The dollar is likely to rise even further Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which countries stand to gain most from lower oil prices? Lower oil prices should provide a boost to the economies of Emerging Asia. However, some countries are likely to benefit more than others. Indonesia and Thailand stand to gain the most, while Malaysia... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of salt With the party conference season in full swing, attention has turned from the Scottish referendum to the main parties’ plans for fiscal policy in the next parliament. But while their new pledges may... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey comes back into the firing line There has been a broad-based sell-off in Emerging European markets over the past month, but those in Turkey have suffered some of the heaviest losses as a renewed focus on Fed tightening has brought... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong fundamentals will ultimately support palladium prices Palladium prices rose strongly for much of 2014 as rising concerns about supply attracted investor interest. In the last month, however, investors have been selling. In our view, solid demand growth... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan could deliver a positive surprise The analyst consensus is close to unanimous that the forthcoming Tankan will show a second successive decline. That’s not implausible given the continued weakness of the activity data. Nonetheless... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
