Commodities Update Sugar prices to remain less than sweet Like many agricultural commodities, sugar has seen a price rout as earlier concerns over supply have evaporated. Despite the benchmark ISA sugar price being nearly 18% below its 2014 mid-May peak, we... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s markets rebound, but SA’s take a tumble Ghana’s markets have rallied in response to the news that the government has turned to the IMF for support, with the currency strengthening and the yields of dollar-denominated bonds falling this... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The era of global QE is not over Although the Fed is about to end its asset purchases, quantitative easing in the world as a whole still has a long way to go. The BoJ has already been buying assets on a larger scale than the Fed for... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Aug.) The large 1.0% m/m rise in house prices in August reported by the Land Registry reflects tight market conditions in the spring. But forward looking indicators continue to point to a cooling in housing... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil debt risks: private sector still poses the greatest threat Some commentators have argued that the deterioration in Brazil’s public finances in recent years has raised the risk of a fiscal crisis during the next presidential term, which runs from 2015 to 2019... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Financial sector woes will continue to weigh on Vietnam Today’s GDP data show that Vietnam’s economy is showing gradual signs of a recovery from the financial crisis that erupted more than three years ago. Looking ahead, the government is making some... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Aug.; Tokyo: Sep.) Inflation dropped slightly in August, and we believe that it will moderate further towards year-end. This should increase pressure on the BoJ to provide more stimulus. 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Diverging rate paths to favour gilts Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would policy change under a new PBOC governor? People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is once again rumoured to be on the verge of being replaced. We are sceptical of suggestions that Mr Zhou has lost out in a power struggle. A new governor might... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Dollar likely to keep on rising Although the US dollar has already strengthened significantly against the other major currencies during the third quarter, we expect it to appreciate further as the monetary policy of the Fed diverges... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Stripping out the aircraft-related volatility, the underlying strength in capital goods orders and shipments in August indicates that business investment in equipment continues to expand at a healthy... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown in job growth at odds with other evidence Our econometric model suggests that the recent slowdown in payroll employment growth is at odds with the strengthening in other measures of labour market conditions. As such, we expect that August’s... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade a little stronger in Q3 There was a slight pick-up in world trade in June and July, which is consistent with our view that global growth recovered in the current quarter. Nonetheless, trade is still expanding relatively... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will weak economic growth have on Italian retail rents? The relationship between retail sales growth and prime high street rental growth in Italy has broken down in recent years as occupier demand has been driven mainly by luxury retailers. Accordingly, we... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Finland set to lag behind Nordic neighbours Finland’s dismal post-crisis economic performance is at odds with the ongoing recoveries of its Nordic neighbours. Although these countries share many characteristics, Finland’s economic decline has... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
