Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, policy to remain tight The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged today, but there are signs that policymakers have started to tighten monetary conditions via the interest rate “corridor” to counter the... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided another encouraging sign that the continued weakness of wages has not prevented the recovery in retail sales from remaining robust. 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Although August’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement, lending is still contracting and, given the low uptake at the ECB’s first TLTRO last week, there is little sign that this... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt's economic recovery gathers pace Having suffered following last summer’s “second revolution”, the Egyptian economy is finally starting to gather steam. Activity has been buoyed by recent political stability and the government’s Gulf... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Problems mounting for weak Argentine economy The Argentine economy was extremely weak in the second quarter and, with the government since defaulting on its debt, it seems that the situation will only get worse in the second half of this year... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Prospects for EM currencies differ despite broad sell-off The sell-off in emerging market currencies so far this month has been broad-based, but we expect investors to become more selective soon. We think a number of currencies will probably rebound, while... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Finland set to lag behind Nordic neighbours Finland’s dismal post-crisis economic performance is at odds with the ongoing recoveries of its Nordic neighbours. Although these countries share many characteristics, Finland’s economic decline has... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth set to strengthen in Q3 A composite of the flash manufacturing PMIs released so far suggests that the pace of global growthaccelerated in the third quarter, despite more signs of weakness in the euro-zone and Japan. 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The increase in new home sales to a six-year high in August suggests that looser credit conditions and strengthening economic activity are finally giving households the confidence to purchase a new... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are Italian and Spanish credit spreads too low? Although the US dollar has already strengthened significantly against the other major currencies during the third quarter, we expect it to appreciate further as the monetary policy of the Fed diverges... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which sector offers the best prospects in the Netherlands? Given an environment of relatively muted economic growth in the Netherlands and its main trading partners, we think that office property returns have more potential to deliver a positive surprise than... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is this the high-water mark for the upturn? Investment market activity has recently hit record levels and the strong, yield-driven capital gains have continued. However, our sense is that yields now need to pause, giving time for the underlying... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – state of the race The latest opinion polls suggest that Brazil’s presidential election is going to go down to the wire, with support for President Rousseff stabilising in recent weeks. From the perspective of the... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector drives sharp Q2 slowdown in Saudi Arabia The Saudi Arabian economy slowed sharply between Q1 and Q2, largely due to weakness in the oil sector. The data also provided further signs that Saudi consumers may be struggling. Looking ahead, it’s... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
