Asia Economics Update Malaysia's fiscal consolidation to continue, drag manageable Malaysia’s government finances have traditionally stood out as a potential threat to its economic stability, but there have been notable improvements in recent years. The 2015 budget is expected to... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s Ifo survey brought further worrying signs that the recovery in the German economy is grinding to a halt and underlined the need for both monetary and fiscal policy to provide further... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for platinum prices? Disappointing growth in demand at a time of high stocks is weighing on the price of platinum. Weexpect lower prices to encourage some buying, notably of jewellery, but a sustained recovery is... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (September) Despite the fall in today's flash manufacturing PMI, the decline in manufacturing activity appears to be nearing its end. 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's flat retail sales volumes combined with the decline in wholesale sales reported last week indicate that the economic recovery lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. This is... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What is behind the recent currency weakness? Sizeable falls in a number of Asian currencies against the US dollar over the past month have rekindled unwelcome memories of last summer’s “Taper Tantrum”. As was the case during last year’s sell-off... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Looking beyond the headlines on commodities The recent slide in the Bloomberg index of spot commodity prices to its lowest level since 2010 has caught the attention of many commentators. But the underlying picture is far more nuanced than the... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How to interpret the weakness in commodity prices The recent slide in the Bloomberg index of spot commodity prices to its lowest level since 2010 has caught the attention of many commentators. But the underlying picture is far more nuanced than the... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to keep rates at record low well into next year The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling commodity prices to help keep EM inflation subdued Recent falls in the prices of oil and a number of agricultural commodities add to the reasons to expect EM inflation to stay muted over the coming months. But while in aggregate we think that... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t fear the zombies Some argue that interest rates should be raised swiftly to purge so-called “zombie” firms with low productivity. But in reality, there are few zombies and their productivity will rise as demand picks... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The main high street banks cut the number of mortgages approved for house purchase for the second month in a row in August, to their lowest level in a year. Weak housing demand argues against a... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities demand unlikely to get a boost anytime soon The increase in the flash PMI for China has helped to assuage fears about a hard landing. However, the index is still low by historical standards and the fall in the euro-zone’s flash PMI highlights... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) Significant methodological changes have not altered the fact that the coalition is still struggling to bring the deficit down as quickly as planned. But there are reasons to think that the borrowing... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in September added to worrying signs that the region’s economy barely expanded in Q3 after Q2’s stagnation. 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
