US Economics Update Fed pushes up rate projections Although the Fed opted to keep the language in the FOMC statement that there will be a "considerable time" between the end of the asset purchases in October and the first rate hike, we suspect that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy continues to stagnate August’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that the economy continued to stagnate. Growth in the industrial sector slowed, while the slump in investment activity deepened further. What’s more... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade negotiations may be blocked for many more years It is twenty years since the last major multilateraltrade agreement was signed and there is no newdeal in sight. What’s more, the regionalTransatlantic and Trans-Pacific trade talks looklikely to drag... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further softening in core price pressures in August eases the pressure on the Fedto weaken its “considerable time” rate pledge at today’s policy meeting. 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana keeps rates on hold as IMF talks open The Ghanaian authorities’ turn to the IMF and the subsequent rally in the cedi allowed the central bank to keep interest rates on hold today, in spite of above target inflation. Looking ahead, we... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Climate change not all bad news for agricultural commodities Rising global temperatures are often assumed to be unambiguously negative for the output of agricultural commodities. However, while there is plenty of debate about the causes and impacts of climate... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shift The general impression seems to be that the latest liquidity injections by the People’s Bank are a form of stealth stimulus. But these are in fact run-of-the-mill operations designed to smooth... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Labour Data (Jul./Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting struck a fairly dovish tone, while the continued weakness of average earnings growth has bolstered the case for keeping interest rates on hold over the coming... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Workforce jobs (Q2) London office-based employment recorded another strong gain in the second quarter. Strong occupier demand may well prompt developers to raise the medium-term City and West End pipeline. But even that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand rates to stay low to support recovery With the economy showing signs of the improvement, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 2.0% at its meeting today. Nonetheless, the economy is still some way away from... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada isn't targeting lower dollar Governor Stephen Poloz's reminder today that the Bank of Canada has no desire to use monetary policy to target a weaker currency doesn't mean that the Canadian dollar won't continue to depreciate over... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The continued strength in manufacturing sales in July, combined with some upward revisions to the gains in the months before, suggests that the economy began the third quarter on a stronger footing... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Slower GDP growth points to interest rate hold Today’s weaker-than-expected Colombian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 4.3% y/y in Q2 (from 6.4% y/y in Q1), are likely to tip the balance in favour of interest rates being left on... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will UK Gilts continue to outperform US Treasuries? The yield of 10-year Gilts has fallen clearly below that of 10-year Treasuries for the first time since the spring. Whilst it would be premature to talk of a significant decoupling, we suspect that UK... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
