Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates likely to remain unchanged until after election The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold today and we do not expect any major shifts in the stance of monetary policy in the near term. The risks to inflation are skewed to the... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US corporate sector turns net borrower The US non-financial corporate sector is no longer generating enough savings at home to finance its capital spending. The US government is therefore now reliant on funding from other sources. Should... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: good intentions from down under Few analysts will be waking up early this weekend to read the communiqué from the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Cairns. It is likely to cover a lot of familiar... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Post-referendum relief rally falls flat The absence of a major relief rally following Scotland’s rejection of independence confirms that the markets only ever placed a very small probability on a ‘Yes’ vote. Although interest rate... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the labour market turned for the worse? Industrial production has been falling for several months, and unemployment has started to rise again. If past experience is any guide, the unemployment rate will continue rising towards 4% by the end... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2) Iceland’s economy contracted in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter, raising questions over the sustainability of the economic recovery. But there are still reasons to believe that its economy will... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2014 Perhaps the most notable development in today’s quarterly surveys from the People’s Bank is the sharp drop in reported loan demand but there are some more positive developments too. Firms report... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Indonesia dictate global tin prices? Indonesia appears to be exercising its power as the world’s largest tin exporter, withholding shipments when prices are low. However, with only subdued growth in demand, there is a risk that other... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q2) Today’s ONS data confirm that institutions’ demand for commercial property remained strong in Q2, with timelier Property Archive figures showing that this momentum has been sustained into Q3. This... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit growth in Emerging Asia still unsustainable We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. While there are encouraging signs that... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Problems at Bank Asya turn attention to Turkey’s bank risks The near-collapse of the Turkish Islamic bank, Bank Asya, seems to be an isolated incident, the result of political feuding more than bad credit decisions. But it has put the spotlight back onto... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage arrears return to pre-crisis rates – but will they stay there? Mortgage arrears have returned to pre-crisis rates despite six years of falling real earnings. Instead the improvement is largely down to record low interest rates. All else equal, that suggests... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scottish ‘No’ vote does not lift cloud of political uncertainty The near-term outlook for the economy on both sides of the Scottish border has brightened following Scotland’s decision to remain part of the UK. But despite the ‘No’ vote, the UK economy will... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2 14) Iceland’s economy contracted in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter, raising questions over the sustainability of the economic recovery. But there are still reasons to believe that its economy will... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Return to normalcy? The recent strength evident in much of the incoming survey and activity data suggeststhat we were right to believe GDP growth would accelerate once credit conditions eased and thefiscal drag faded. We... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
